| 引用本文: | 朱兆霞,邹 斌.市场环境下配电公司的风险模型及负荷率的影响分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2007,35(12):56-60.[点击复制] |
| ZHU Zhao-xia,ZOU Bin.Risk model of distribution utilities and analyzing the infection on the load Factor in electricity market[J].Power System Protection and Control,2007,35(12):56-60[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 电力市场中的电价是最易波动的量，而电价的波动使每个市场参与者都面临着不同程度的风险。该文将电价看成是条件于负荷需求水平的随机变量，基于全年共有8760小时的前提下，得出了负荷持续曲线，随后得出市场环境下配电公司的风险模型，求出配电公司获得毛收益的均值和方差。为了使自己的收益最大化而风险最小化，从负荷率的概念出发，保持全年每小时的平均负荷不变，利用削峰填谷技术进行年负荷调整，研究配电公司的毛收益。研究结果表明，随着负荷率的上升，配电公司的毛收益的均值上升，毛收益的标准差下降。 |
| 关键词: 配电公司 风险模型 毛收益 负荷率 |
| DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2007.12.013 |
| 投稿时间：2006-12-11修订日期：2006-12-19 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Risk model of distribution utilities and analyzing the infection on the load Factor in electricity market |
| ZHU Zhao-xia,ZOU Bin |
| (Southern Yangtze University，Wuxi 214122,China) |
| Abstract: |
| In electricity market, price has been the most fluctuant. Consequently, each participant in the market will encounter with some extent of risk. In this paper, price is considered as load conditions in the level of demand for random variables, for a total of 8,760 hours a year, under the premise reached a sustained load curve, and then risk model of distribution utilities is proposed. It also gives the average and variance of distribution utilities’ gross revenue. Based on the concept of load factor, this paper offers an analysis of the gross revenue of distribution utilities by the technology of cutting peak value and filling vale value, keeping average load of every hour. The paper draws the conclusion that the gross revenue of distribution utilities climbs as load factor goes up, while mean squared deviation of gross revenue declines. |
| Key words: distribution utilities risk model gross revenue load factor |
