| 引用本文: | 苏傲雪,范明天,张祖平,李仲来,周莉梅.配电系统元件故障率的估算方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(19):61-66.[点击复制] |
| SU Ao-xue,FAN Ming-tian,ZHANG Zu-ping,LI Zhong-lai,ZHOU Li-mei.A new approach for the evaluation of failure rates on distribution system components[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(19):61-66[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 配电系统元件故障率的分析与确定是系统可靠性评估的基础。针对配电系统元件不同故障原因共存和故障统计时段较短、故障统计数据不完整的现状，提出了配电系统元件故障率估算的一种新方法。首先在分析元件故障原因的基础上，建立了元件偶然故障和老化失效的混合分布模型；然后针对收集到的元件故障统计数据，在故障统计时段较长的情况下，直接采用极大似然(MLE)方法对混合分布模型中的未知参数进行估计，在故障统计时段较短、截尾现象较严重的情况下，针对这些双边定时截尾故障数据，采用EM算法进行参数估计，从而得出元件的混合故障率函数；最后对某地区配电系统10 kV架空线的故障率进行了相关计算。通过对不同统计时段以及不同方法得出的结果进行对比，验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。 |
| 关键词: 可靠性评估 元件故障率 混合分布模型 双边定时截尾 EM算法 |
| DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2013.19.010 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| A new approach for the evaluation of failure rates on distribution system components |
| SU Ao-xue1,FAN Ming-tian2,ZHANG Zu-ping2,LI Zhong-lai3,ZHOU Li-mei2 |
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| Abstract: |
| The analysis and determination of the failure rate on distribution system components is the basis of the system reliability assessment. According to the fact that different failure causes coexist and the statistic period is short and failure data is incomplete, this paper proposes a new approach for the evaluation of failure rate on distribution system components. Firstly, the mixed model of random and aging failure is established based on the analysis of component failure causes. Then, according to the collected component failure data, the maximum likelihood estimation method is directly applied to estimate the unknown parameters of the mixed model in the case of a longer statistic failure period, and the EM algorithm is applied to the type-Ⅰ doubly censored failure data for the small and highly censored samples. As a result, the mixture failure rate function of the component is obtained. Finally, the failure rates of 10 kV aerial lines in the distribution system are calculated, and the availability and practicality of the proposed method is verified through the comparison of the results among different statistical periods and different methods. |
| Key words: reliability assessment component failure rate mixed model type-Ⅰdoubly censored EM algorithm |
