| 引用本文: | 栗然,韩彪,卢云,刘会兰,赵碧凝.基于随机模糊理论的变压器经济寿命评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(1):9-16.[点击复制] |
| LI Ran,HAN Biao,LU Yun,LIU Hui-lan,ZHAO Bi-ning.Transformer’s economic life assessment based on random and fuzzy theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(1):9-16[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 对电力变压器进行经济寿命评估，可以有效保障电网安全运行、提高企业经济效益。以全寿命周期成本理论为指导，将环境成本和社会责任成本纳入变压器全寿命周期成本中，建立了更为全面的变压器全寿命周期成本模型。针对评估参数随机、模糊不确定性共存或交叉存在的特点，引入能同时处理这两种不确定性的随机模糊理论处理评估参数，建立了新的变压器经济寿命评估模型。此模型不但可以得到变压器经济寿命期望值，还能够得到不同置信水平下的经济寿命区间以及相同跨度的区间中机会测度最大的经济寿命区间。实例结果表明，将随机模糊理论应用到变压器经济寿命评估中是有效可行的，可以为决策者提供更为详细和多元化的信息，具有一定的参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 全寿命周期成本 经济寿命 随机模糊理论 不同置信水平 机会测度 |
| DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2014.01.002 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Transformer’s economic life assessment based on random and fuzzy theory |
| LI Ran,HAN Biao,LU Yun,LIU Hui-lan,ZHAO Bi-ning |
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| Abstract: |
| Evaluating economic life of power transformers can effectively guarantee the safe operation of grid and improve economic efficiency. Full life-cycle cost theory used as a guide, environmental costs and social responsibility costs taken into consideration, a more comprehensive full life-cycle cost model of the transformer is established. Since evaluation parameters have random and fuzzy uncertainty, random fuzzy theory processing evaluation parameters are introduced to handle the two kinds of uncertainty simultaneously and a new assessment of the economic life of the transformer model is established. This model not only can get economic life expectancy of the transformers, but also can get the economic life interval under different confidence levels and interval whose chance measurement is the biggest under the same economic life span. An example result shows that the random and fuzzy theory applied to the transformer economic life assessment is feasible and effective, and it can provide more detailed and diversified information for decision makers and has a certain reference value. |
| Key words: life cycle cost economic life random fuzzy theory different confidence levels chance measurement |
