一种基于PHM考虑老化和设备状态的油浸式变压器
故障率模型

鹿鸣明; 王逸飞; 郭创新; 曹敏

引用本文:	鹿鸣明,王逸飞,郭创新,等.一种基于PHM考虑老化和设备状态的油浸式变压器故障率模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(18):66-71.
	LU Ming-ming,WANG Yi-fei,GUO Chuang-xin,et al.Failure rate model for oil-immersed transformer based on PHM concerning aging process and equipment inspection information[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(18):66-71

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一种基于PHM考虑老化和设备状态的油浸式变压器故障率模型
鹿鸣明¹, 王逸飞¹, 郭创新¹, 曹敏²
1.浙江大学电气工程学院，浙江杭州 310027;2.云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司，云南昆明 650051

摘要:

比例故障率模型(Proportional hazard model, PHM)中的故障率函数包含基准故障率函数和连接函数，前者表征设备的一般老化，后者描述设备状态的影响，对不同影响因素(协变量)进行量化。基于PHM提出了一种综合考虑老化和设备状态的油浸变压器故障率模型，基准故障率函数采用常用的温升老化模型，连接函数中的协变量选择了能够全面客观反映设备状况的油中溶解气体信息。推导了故障前时间的概率密度分布并给出了使用极大似然估计拟合参数的方法。算例证明了拟合方法的正确性，结果分析表明提出的模型具有正确合理表

关键词: 油浸式变压器比例故障率模型油中溶解气体分析极大似然估计

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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51177143)；国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A120)；浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ12E07002)

Failure rate model for oil-immersed transformer based on PHM concerning aging process and equipment inspection information

LU Ming-ming¹, WANG Yi-fei¹, GUO Chuang-xin¹, CAO Min²

1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;2.Yunnan Power Research & Test Institute (Group) Co., Limited, Kunming 650051, China

Abstract:

The Cox’s time-dependent proportional hazard model (PHM) is widely used. Its hazard function contains two parts: the baseline hazard function which represents the aging process, and the link function which represents the equipment status. Based on PHM this paper proposes a new failure rate model for oil-immersed transformer concerning both aging process and equipment inspection information. The baseline hazard function follows a temperature-based aging model. The quantity of the dissolved gas is used as the covariate of the link function, for its comprehensiveness. We determine the probability density function of the time to failure, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the model’s parameters. The case study proves the efficiency of the proposed model, which is able to characterize the failure rate of oil-immersed transformer reasonably and comprehensively and can represent the maintenance effect properly.

Key words: oil-immersed transformer proportional hazard model dissolved gas analysis maximum-likelihood estimation

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