| 引用本文: | 刘明军,邵周策,上官帖,等.输电线路山火故障风险评估模型及评估方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(6):82-89.[点击复制] |
| LIU Mingjun,SHAO Zhouce,SHANGGUAN Tie,et al.Study on models and methods of risk assessment of transmission line fault caused by fire[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(6):82-89[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 输电线路山火故障与输电线路运行时的气象条件、人为因素等密切相关，近年来输电线路山火故障逐年增加。建立了输电线路山火故障跳闸风险评估模型，该模型包括输电线路走廊山火发生概率模型和山火条件下输电线路故障模型两部分。应用该模型，可以根据宏观气象条件预测山火引起的输电线路故障概率。可以在山火发生后，根据山火的蔓延模型预测输电线路山火故障风险随时间的变化情况。可以根据输电走廊及其附近的植被情况，计算火源点与输电线路山火故障风险之间的关系，并制定输电线路山火故障等级分布图。研究成果可用于制定输电线路山火故障预案和防灾减灾措施。 |
| 关键词: 风险评估 风险指标 山火 输电线路山火故障 火源点 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC150844 |
| 投稿时间：2015-05-19修订日期：2016-01-28 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Study on models and methods of risk assessment of transmission line fault caused by fire |
| LIU Mingjun,SHAO Zhouce,SHANGGUAN Tie,TONG Junxin,ZHOU Longwu,LUO Yi,GONG Ze,WANG Xiaoji |
| (State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Research Institute, Nanchang 330096, China;College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Transmission line fault that caused by fire is closely related to weather conditions, human behavior factors and so on. In recent years, transmission line fault is increasing year by year. This paper builds a risk assessment model of transmission line fault caused by fire. This model includes two sub models: the fire occurrence probability model of the area that transmission line pass through and the probability model of transmission line fault under the fire condition. Using this model can predict the probability of transmission line fire fault according to the macro-meteorological conditions. When the fire is spreading to the line, according to the spreading model of fire, this model can estimate the time-variant risk condition of the transmission line fault. Based on the geographic conditions and vegetation near the transmission line, this risk assessment model can calculate the relationship between the fire spots and the risk of transmission line fault, so as to make a fault level distribution maps of the transmission line fault. Results in this paper can be used to formulate contingency plans for transmission line fire fault and disaster prevention measures. |
| Key words: assessment risk indicator fire transmission line fire fault fire spots |
