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| 引用本文: | 杨正瓴,杨 钊,张 玺,朱新山,张 军.基于季风提高空间相关性预测的优化延迟时间[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(15):33-38.[点击复制] |
| YANG Zhengling,YANG Zhao,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Xinshan,ZHANG Jun.Improving optimal lag time of spatial correlation prediction by characteristics of monsoon[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(15):33-38[点击复制] |
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| 基于季风提高空间相关性预测的优化延迟时间 |
| 杨正瓴,杨钊,张玺,朱新山,张军 |
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| (天津大学电气与自动化工程学院，天津 300072;天津市过程检测与控制重点实验室，天津 300072) |
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| 摘要: |
| 由于只依据本地数值天气预报和历史数据的风电功率预测大体进入相对饱和时期，所以依据周边地区风速和风向的空间相关性预测就成为今后提高风速预测效果的主要方法。我国三分之二的国土面积，陆地风能资源丰富区中的沿海和北部的部分区域，以及主要能源消费区都处在季风区，因此利用季风改进空间相关性预测就成为重要的研究课题。季风区不同地点风速时间序列之间，存在显著的延迟相似性。利用相关系数、互信息等可以提取这些优化的延迟时间，并依此实现风速的空间相关性预测。在季风时期，福建长江澳对广东湛江的优化延迟时间约为20 h，明显超过欧美典型的4 h。 |
| 关键词: 季风 空间相关性 风速 预测 延迟时间 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC151551 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Improving optimal lag time of spatial correlation prediction by characteristics of monsoon |
| YANG Zhengling,YANG Zhao,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Xinshan,ZHANG Jun |
(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
;Key Laboratory of Process Measurement and Control, Tianjin 300072, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Since the prediction of wind power only by local NWP and historical observations has saturated, the spatial correlation approaches, which employ the wind speeds and directions of surrounding areas, become the main methods to improve the prediction of wind speed in the future. To improve the spatial correlation prediction by characteristics of monsoon is very important for China, because the 2/3 area, the littoral and northern part of wind energy resources rich areas as well as the major energy consumption areas of China are all located in monsoon regions. The wind speed time series between different places are obviously similar after some lag time. The optimal lag time can be calculated by the correlation coefficient and mutual information, which can improve the spatial correlation prediction. In the monsoon durations, the optimal lag time of wind speed from Changjiangao to Zhanjiang is about 20 hours, which is significantly larger than the typical 4 hours in Europe and America. |
| Key words: monsoon spatial correlation wind speed prediction lag time |
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