| 引用本文: | 陈杏,宋依群,杨镜非.基于状态联动的在役设备最佳运行寿命评估模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):67-73.[点击复制] |
| CHEN Xing,SONG Yiqun,YANG Jingfei.Optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment based on state linkage[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(1):67-73[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 以设备实际运行状态为依据，以科学预测在役设备最佳使用年限、维护系统的供电可靠性和提高企业经济效益为目的，构建了基于状态联动的在役设备最佳运行寿命评估模型。基于在役设备的状态评价结果建立状态联动的故障概率预测模型，改进可靠性参数的预测，综合考虑了健康状态和运行环境等因素，反映了在役设备的个体差异性。兼顾可靠性和经济性的要求，结合模糊役龄回退机制，以设备年均全寿命周期成本最小为目标，构建电力设备最佳运行寿命评估模型。以变压器为例，从在运时间和当前健康指数两个维度对在役设备的最佳运行寿命进行了比较分析。算例结果表明，构建的最佳运行寿命评估模型可以合理设定设备的最佳运行寿命，能为在役设备的检修和退役安排提供理论参考。 |
| 关键词: 在役设备 状态联动故障率预测 不确定性 状态检修 最佳使用寿命 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC160086 |
| 投稿时间：2016-01-15修订日期：2016-04-06 |
| 基金项目:广东电网公司科技项目(GDDW0520140301SG00018) |
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| Optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment based on state linkage |
| CHEN Xing,SONG Yiqun,YANG Jingfei |
| (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the actual state of power equipment, this paper establishes an optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment based on state linkage, in order to make a scientific optimal service life prediction for equipment in service, maintain power supply reliability and improve economic efficiency for power supply enterprises. Considering individual differences and taking health index and environment factor into account, a state linked failure rate prediction model is established to improve the prediction of reliability factors. Using the fuzzy age reduction model, taking the reliability and the economy into account, an optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment is proposed, taking the minimum annual life cycle cost as a goal. Taking the transformer as an example, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the optimal service life from two dimensions, in-service time and current health index. The numerical results show that the proposed optimal service life evaluation model can reasonably set the optimum service life, which can provide theoretical reference for the maintenance work and retirement arrangement of power equipment. |
| Key words: in-service equipment state linked failure rate prediction uncertainty condition-based maintenance optimal service life |
