| 引用本文: | 张颖超,王雅晨,邓华,等.基于IAFSA-BPNN的短期风电功率预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(7):58-63. |
| ZHANG Yingchao,WANG Yachen,DENG Hua,et al.IAFSA-BPNN for wind power probabilistic forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):58-63 |
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| 摘要: |
| 为提高短期风电功率预测精度，提出一种基于IAFSA-BPNN的短期风电功率预测方法。该方法通过改进的人工鱼群算法来优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值，从而提高BP神经网络的收敛速度和泛化能力。利用2014年上海某风场实测数据对新算法进行检验。试验结果表明，改进的人工鱼群算法一定程度上克服了原算法后期搜索的盲目性较大，收敛速度减慢，搜索精度变低的缺陷。IAFSA-BPNN混合算法在预测的稳定性和精度、收敛速度等方面优于BPNN、AFSA-BPNN算法。IAFSA-BPNN算法不仅能提高短期风电功率预测的精度，而且改善了预测结果稳定性。 |
| 关键词: 短期风电功率预测 人工鱼群算法 BP神经网络 IAFSA-BPNN |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC160483 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41675156);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)与江苏省六大人才高峰项(WLW-021)共同资助 |
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| IAFSA-BPNN for wind power probabilistic forecasting |
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ZHANG Yingchao1,2,WANG Yachen1,DENG Hua1,2,XIONG Xiong2,CHEN Hao1
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(1. School of Information and Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
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| Abstract: |
| A method based on Improvement Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm (IAFSA)-BP neural network algorithm is presented for improving the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting. It optimizes the weights and thresholds of BPNN and improves the BPNN generalization capacity and the rate of convergence. By using the historical data of a wind farm of Shanghai in 2014, IAFSA is proposed to overcome the defects of traditional Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm such as the blindness of searching, slow convergence speed and low searching precision at the later stage. The simulation result compared with BP neural network and AFSA-BPNN algorithm shows that the IAFSA-BPNN algorithm can not only improve the prediction accuracy and stability, but also shorten the model’s rate of convergence, and improve the precision and stability in short-term wind power forecasting. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41675156), and Prior Discipline Construction Project of Jiangsu Universities (No. PAPD), and Jiangsu Six Major Talents Peaks Project (No. WLW-021). |
| Key words: short-term wind power prediction AFSA BPNN IAFSA-BP |
