| 引用本文: | 何迪,章禹,郭创新,等.一种面向风险评估的输电线路故障概率模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(7):69-76.[点击复制] |
| HE Di,ZHANG Yu,GUO Chuangxin,et al.Failure probability model of transmission lines for risk assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):69-76[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 设备停运是电力系统失效的根本原因，建立设备故障概率模型是进行系统风险评估的核心问题。根据输电线路故障产生的内外部机理，提出了面向风险评估且适用于表征输电线路故障概率的Ageing-Load-Health-Weather- PHM (ALHW-PHM)。模型中基准故障概率函数采用老化失效模型，协变量采用负载率相依的实时导体温度及健康状态和天气状况相依的劣化扣分值，并采用极大似然估计进行参数拟合。为了提高参数拟合的效率，设计了一种基于大数据平台的样本数据级并行参数估计架构。算例分析定量展现了各风险因素对故障概率的影响及在系统风险评估中故障概率的应用。该模型能综合响应老化失效、负载率、健康水平和天气状况等风险因素对故障概率的影响，能为电网的风险评估提供理论支持。 |
| 关键词: 输电线路 风险评估 比例风险模型 故障概率 并行计算 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC160465 |
| 投稿时间：2016-04-03修订日期：2016-05-30 |
| 基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) (2015AA050204);浙江省自然科学基金(LZ14E070001) |
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| Failure probability model of transmission lines for risk assessment |
| HE Di,ZHANG Yu,GUO Chuangxin,CHEN Yufeng,ZHANG Jinjiang,LIU Hui |
| (College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;Electric Power Research Institute of Shandong Power Supply Company of State Grid, Jinan 250002, China;College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University of Science & Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The outage of equipment is the root cause of the failure of power system, so building a failure probability model for equipment is the key to the risk assessment of system. Based on internal and external mechanism which will lead to failure, this paper proposes ‘Ageing-Load-Health-Weather-PHM (ALHW-PHM)’, which is for risk assessment and applicable to characterize the failure probability of transmission lines. This model adopts temperature-based aging model as the baseline hazard function, and utilizes the wire real-time temperature which depends on load rate and the deterioration score deduction which depends on health status and weather condition as covariates in the link function. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the model’s parameters. In order to improve the efficiency, a structure of parallel parameter estimation for samples basing on big data platform is designed. The case study quantitatively shows the impact of different risk factors and the application of failure probability in the risk assessment of power system. This model, which comprehensively considers the influence of risk factors such as thermal aging process, load factor, health status and weather conditions, can provide theoretical support for risk assessment. This work is supported by National High-tech R & D Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2015AA050204) and Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (No. LZ14E070001). |
| Key words: transmission line risk assessment proportional hazard model failure probability parallel computing |
