| 引用本文: | 陈刚,包严,赵晋泉,等.考虑负荷增长随机性的大电网电压稳定概率评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(23):37-44.[点击复制] |
| CHEN Gang,BAO Yan,ZHAO Jinquan,et al.Probabilistic voltage stability assessment of large power grid considering stochastic load growth[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(23):37-44[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对电压稳定负荷裕度计算中负荷增长随机性的影响，提出一种大电网电压稳定概率评估方法。该方法根据历史负荷数据采用改进K均值聚类算法将负荷分类，基于负荷预测和负荷分类结果定义负荷随机增长的期望，在此基础上建立负荷增长方向概率模型，并采用拉丁超立方采样技术获得负荷增长方向样本，运用连续潮流对各样本进行确定性的负荷裕度计算。运用该方法对我国某实际电网进行电压稳定概率评估，评估结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。 |
| 关键词: 电压稳定概率评估 负荷裕度 负荷增长随机性 负荷分类 拉丁超立方采样 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC171765 |
| 投稿时间：2017-12-05修订日期：2018-02-01 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目资助(51577049);南方电网公司科技项目资助(KYKJXM00000001)“交直流大电网静态电压安全评估高级功能研发” |
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| Probabilistic voltage stability assessment of large power grid considering stochastic load growth |
| CHEN Gang,BAO Yan,ZHAO Jinquan,HUANG Guanbiao,ZHOU Yan,LIN Qing |
| (Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510663, China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Considering the influence of stochastic load growth in voltage stability load margin computation, a probabilistic voltage stability assessment method of large power grid is proposed. The improved K-means clustering algorithm is used to classify the load types according to historical load data. Then the expectation value of stochastic load growth is defined based on load forecasting and load classification results. According to the probability distributions of load growth direction, the samples are generated by the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The continuation power flow is utilized for computing load margin of each sample. The numerical results of probabilistic voltage stability assessment in a large power grid of China show that the proposed method is effective and practical. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51577049) and Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Company (No. KYKJXM00000001) “Research and Development of Advanced Function on Static Voltage Security Assessment for AC/DC Power Grids”. |
| Key words: probabilistic voltage stability assessment load margin stochastic load growth load classification Latin Hypercube Sampling |
