| 引用本文: | 朱凌,陈涛威,周晨,邓红雷,夏桥.考虑风速风向联合分布的大风灾害下电力断线倒塔概率预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2019,47(2):115-122.[点击复制] |
| ZHU Ling,CHEN Taowei,ZHOU Chen,DENG Honglei,XIA Qiao.Probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over under wind disaster considering the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction[J].Power System Protection and Control,2019,47(2):115-122[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 针对实际线路风速与风向数据很难获取、现有大风灾害下断线倒塔概率预测误差偏高的不足，提出了考虑风速风向相关性的电力断线倒塔概率预测模型。该模型采用风速概率密度函数和风向频度的乘积表示联合概率密度函数，计算输电线路高度各风向的有效最优概率分布类型及参数。利用输电线路风荷载模型和铁塔风荷载模型计算得到各个方向下线路和铁塔能承受的最大风速。对数值天气预报数据进行处理，采用高度修正和插值映射后的预报风速数据作为输入参数，实现线路气象数据不足时风灾下电力断线倒塔的概率高精度预测。 |
| 关键词: 大风灾害 风速风向联合分布 概率性分析 断线倒塔 数值天气预报 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC180109 |
| 投稿时间：2018-03-31修订日期：2018-08-25 |
| 基金项目:南方电网公司科技项目资助(031300KK52160012) |
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| Probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over under wind disaster considering the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction |
| ZHU Ling,CHEN Taowei,ZHOU Chen,DENG Honglei,XIA Qiao |
| (Huizhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, Huizhou 516001, China;School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In view of the deficiencies that it is difficult to obtain the data of the wind speed and direction of the actual line and the prediction error of transmission line breakage and tower topple over is higher than that of the existing wind disaster, a probability prediction model of transmission line breakage and tower topple over with the correlation of wind speed and wind direction is proposed. The model uses the product of wind speed probability density function and wind direction frequency to express the joint probability density function and calculate the effective optimal probability distribution types and parameters of each wind direction of transmission line height. The wind load model of transmission lines and the wind load model of the tower are used to calculate the maximum wind speed that the lines and the towers can bear under each direction. Through processing numerical weather forecast data and taking the altitude correction and interpolation mapping after forecasting wind speed data as input parameters, it achieves the probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over when the line meteorological data is insufficient. This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Company (No. 031300KK52160012). |
| Key words: windstorm joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction probabilistic analysis line damage and tower collapse numerical weather prediction |
