| 引用本文: | 蒋峰,王宗耀,张鹏.基于灰色-加权马尔可夫链的光伏发电量预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2019,47(15):55-60.[点击复制] |
| JIANG Feng,WANG Zongyao,ZHANG Peng.Forecasting power generation of solar photovoltaic system based on the combination of grey model and weighted Markov chain[J].Power System Protection and Control,2019,47(15):55-60[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 光伏发电量预测是光伏并网的一项基础性工作。运用灰色模型对光伏发电量进行总体趋势的预测后，加入了加权马尔可夫链预测理论，建立了灰色-加权马尔可夫链预测模型。该模型不仅考虑了GM(1,1)模型对指数增长序列的适应性，而且考虑了发电量数据随机波动的特点，用状态转移概率矩阵来描述这种波动性。将该模型运用于合肥某光伏电站的光伏发电量预测，结果表明加权马尔可夫链与灰色模型的结合，提高了对波动性较大的发电量数据预测的精度，验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 光伏 发电量 灰色模型 加权马尔可夫链 状态转移概率矩阵 |
| DOI：10.7667/PSPC20191508 |
| 投稿时间：2018-05-27修订日期：2018-08-29 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目资助(51567018) |
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| Forecasting power generation of solar photovoltaic system based on the combination of grey model and weighted Markov chain |
| JIANG Feng,WANG Zongyao,ZHANG Peng |
| (School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China;Feidong Electric Power Company, State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hefei 231600, China) |
| Abstract: |
| One fundamental work of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system is to estimate its power generation. This paper introduces weighted Markov Chain estimation theory to build a grey-weighted Markov Chain estimation model after forecasting the overall generation trend of PV by applying the grey model. This model not only takes the advantage of GM(1,1) model when dealing with exponential series into account, but also considers the feature of fluctuation in power generation, which is described by state transfer probability matrix of relative residuals. After applying the model to forecast the generation of one PV power station in Hefei, the results indicate that the combination of grey model and weighted Markov Chain improves the precision when coping with generation data with greater fluctuation, verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of this model. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51567018). |
| Key words: photovoltaic system power generation grey model weighted Markov Chain state transfer probability matrix |
