| 引用本文: | 杜进桥,徐诗鸿,胡志豪,等.基于光伏出力区间预测的相变储能电-热联合调度策略[J].电力系统保护与控制,2019,47(21):109-116.[点击复制] |
| DU Jinqiao,XU Shihong,HU Zhihao,et al.Electric-thermal combined scheduling strategy by phase-change energy storage based on interval prediction of photovoltaic output[J].Power System Protection and Control,2019,47(21):109-116[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 分布式光伏出力具有较大不确定性。为分析其对相变储能电-热耦合系统联合调度的影响，对传统区间预测评价指标进行改进，并利用改进的区间预测模型，提出了一种分布式光伏出力波动范围评估方法。基于现有相变储能电-热联合调度模型，合理计及光伏出力波动性，制定了其电-热联合调度策略。并开展不同出力置信水平下，电-热联合调度策略作用后系统的经济性与风险评估。最后通过仿真算例，分析了光伏出力波动与系统经济性和风险性之间的影响关系，为相变储能系统的实际应用提供了参考借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 分布式光伏 区间预测 相变储能 电-热联合模型 |
| DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.190428 |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-17修订日期：2019-07-09 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(51537003);南方电网科技项目资助(090000KK52180027) |
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| Electric-thermal combined scheduling strategy by phase-change energy storage based on interval prediction of photovoltaic output |
| DU Jinqiao,XU Shihong,HU Zhihao,LI Yan,SUI Quan,FENG Zhongnan,LIN Xiangning,LI Zhengtian |
| (Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518000, China;State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The output of distributed photovoltaic has great uncertainty. In order to analyze its influence on electric-thermal combined scheduling based on phase change energy storage, traditional evaluating indicator of interval prediction is improved, and a method for evaluating the fluctuation range of distributed photovoltaic output is proposed utilizing improved interval prediction model. Based on electric-thermal combined dispatching model, considering the volatility of photovoltaic output reasonably, a strategy to minimize the total cost of purchasing electricity is formulated. Also, the economy and risk of this strategy under different rated confidence levels are analyzed. Finally, in the simulation, the relationship between photovoltaic output fluctuation and the system economy and risk is analyzed, which provides a reference for the practical application of phase change energy storage system. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51537003) and Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid (No. 090000KK52180027). |
| Key words: distributed photovoltaic interval prediction phase-change energy storage electric-thermal combined model |
