| 引用本文: | 栾 乐,周 凯,肖天为,等.基于证据推理的优质电力投资决策方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2020,48(17):139-146.[点击复制] |
| LUAN Le,ZHOU Kai,XIAO Tianwei,et al.Premium power investment decision-making method based on evidence reasoning[J].Power System Protection and Control,2020,48(17):139-146[点击复制] |
|
| 摘要: |
| 电压暂降会给高端制造企业带来巨大的经济损失，企业对优质电力需求强烈，其对优质电力的投资意愿逐步提高，却对如何选择最优的优质电力投资方案无从入手。为有效解决该问题，提出一种基于证据推理理论的多信息融合优质电力投资决策方法。首先，分析优质电力投资决策的影响因素，建立优质电力投资决策的指标体系。然后，采用主客观组合赋权得到指标权重，统一两种权重，降低权重的主观性。最后，基于由权重与等级置信度组成的基本概率函数，利用证据推理理论进行多信息融合，实现对优质电力投资方案的优选。通过对某半导体制造企业进行实例分析，证明所提出的主客观组合赋权与证据推理相结合的方法可对优质电力投资方案进行有效决策，具有较好的实用性。 |
| 关键词: 优质电力 电压暂降 投资决策 证据推理 效用值 |
| DOI：DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.191247 |
| 投稿时间：2019-10-12修订日期：2019-12-17 |
| 基金项目:中国南方电网有限公司科技项目资助(GZHKJXM 20170141) |
|
| Premium power investment decision-making method based on evidence reasoning |
| LUAN Le,ZHOU Kai,XIAO Tianwei,WANG Yong,XU Zhong,MA Zhiyuan |
| (Electric Power Test Research Institute of Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510420, China) |
| Abstract: |
| A voltage sag will bring huge economic losses to high-end manufacturing enterprises. Enterprises have a strong need for premium power, and their willingness to invest in premium power is gradually increasing. However, there is no way to choose the best premium power investment scheme. In order to solve this problem, a multi-information fusion premium power investment decision-making method based on evidence reasoning theory is proposed. The criteria system of premium power investment decision-making is established by deeply analyzing the influence factors of premium power investment decision-making. The weight of the index is obtained by combining subjective and objective weights, unifying the two weights and reducing the subjectivity of the weights. Finally, based on a basic probability function composed of weights and rank belief degrees, multiple information fusion is performed using evidence reasoning theory to optimize the premium power investment scheme. Through a case analysis of a semiconductor manufacturing enterprise, it is proved that the combination of subjective and objective combination weighting and evidence reasoning proposed in this paper can make effective decision-making on premium power investment schemes, and that this has better practicality.
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd. (No. GZHKJXM20170141). |
| Key words: premium power voltage sag investment decision evidence reasoning utility value |
