| 引用本文: | 邢晓敏,徐海瑞,廖孟柯,曹新慧.基于云模型和D-S证据理论的配电终端健康状态
综合评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2021,49(13):72-81.[点击复制] |
| XING Xiaomin,XU Hairui,LIAO Mengke,CAO Xinhui.Comprehensive evaluation method of distribution terminal units health status based on a cloud model and D-S evidence theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2021,49(13):72-81[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 配电终端作为重要的感知单元，对其健康状态进行评估有利于发现终端潜在的安全隐患，安排合理的检修计划以及保证电网安全运行。在构建全面、实用的递阶式评价指标体系基础上，引入集成客观事物随机性与模糊性的云模型求解指标隶属度，并对区间层次分析法(IAHP)进行改进，以兼顾指标权重的主、客观性。随后，基于D-S证据理论实现基础层指标隶属度向目标层信任度的转换，通过信任度最大值判定终端健康状态，并进一步分析冲突系数的分布情况，对基础层不良状态的指标进行预警。最后，以20 kV线路的馈线终端为例，验证该定性指标隶属度求解、组合权值获取和评估过程的可行性。 |
| 关键词: 配电终端 云模型 层次分析法 证据理论 综合评估 |
| DOI：DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.201121 |
| 投稿时间：2020-09-12修订日期：2020-11-16 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目资助(2019YFB1505404) |
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| Comprehensive evaluation method of distribution terminal units health status based on a cloud model and D-S evidence theory |
| XING Xiaomin1,XU Hairui1,LIAO Mengke2,CAO Xinhui2 |
| (1. School of Power Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China;
2. State Grid Xinjiang Economic Research Institute, Urumchi 830002, China) |
| Abstract: |
| As an important sensing unit, the evaluation of the health status of distribution terminal units is conducive to detecting potential security risks of the terminal, arranging a reasonable maintenance plan, and ensuring the safe operation of the power grid. On the basis of building a comprehensive and practical hierarchical evaluation index system, this paper introduces a cloud model integrating the randomness and fuzziness of objective things to solve the index membership degree, and improves the Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process (IAHP) to give consideration to the subjectivity and objectivity of the index weight. Then, based on D-S evidence theory, the membership degree of the basic layer index is transformed into the trust degree of the target layer, and the terminal health status is determined by the maximum trust degree, and the distribution of the conflict coefficient is further analyzed to give early warning of the indicators of the bad state of the basic layer. Finally, taking the feeder terminal of a 20 kV line as an example, the feasibility of the qualitative index membership degree solution, combination weight acquisition and evaluation process is verified.
This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2019YFB1505404). |
| Key words: distribution terminal units cloud model AHP evidence theory comprehensive evaluation |
