| 引用本文: | 王凇瑶,张智晟.基于量子加权多层级GRU神经网络的综合能源
系统多元负荷短期预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2022,50(23):85-93.[点击复制] |
| WANG Songyao,ZHANG Zhisheng.hort-term multivariate load forecasting of an integrated energy system based on a quantumweighted multi-hierarchy gated recurrent unit neural network[J].Power System Protection and Control,2022,50(23):85-93[点击复制] |
|
| 摘要: |
| 针对综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测问题，提出一种基于量子加权多层级GRU(quantum weighted multi hierarchy gated recurrent unit, QWMHGRU)神经网络的多元负荷短期预测模型。采用最大信息系数对多元负荷间和负荷与天气因素间的相关性进行分析，选取模型输入量。然后改进GRU的门控结构，形成多层级门控循环单元(multi hierarchy gated recurrent unit, MHGRU)，并将量子加权神经元引入MHGRU，构成QWMHGRU多变量负荷预测模型。仿真算例结果表明，QWMHGRU多元负荷预测模型在夏季和冬季的权重平均精度均可达97%以上，相比MHGRU、QWGRU和GRU模型具有更高的预测精度。 |
| 关键词: 综合能源系统 最大信息系数 多元负荷短期预测 量子加权多层级GRU |
| DOI：DOI:?10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.220128 |
| 投稿时间：2022-01-28修订日期：2022-05-12 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目资助(52077108) |
|
| hort-term multivariate load forecasting of an integrated energy system based on a quantumweighted multi-hierarchy gated recurrent unit neural network |
| WANG Songyao,ZHANG Zhisheng |
| (College of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To solve the problem of short-term multivariate load forecasting for integrated energy systems, a model based on a quantum weighted multi-hierarchy gated recurrent unit (QWMHGRU) neural network is proposed. The maximum information coefficient is adopted to analyze the correlation between multivariate loads and the relevance between loads and weather factors to form the multiple input sequence. Then the gate structure of the GRU is improved to form a multi-hierarchy gate recurrent unit (MHGRU) and the quantum weighted neurons are introduced into the MHGRU to form the QWMHGRU multivariate load forecasting model. The simulation results show that the weighted average accuracy of the multivariate load forecasting model of QWMHGRU model in summer and winter can reach over 97%. This is higher than MHGRU, QWGRU and GRU models.
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52077108). |
| Key words: integrated energy system maximum information coefficient short-term multivariate load forecasting quantum weighted multi-hierarchy gated recurrent unit |
