| 引用本文: | 冯义,李洪东,田廓,等.基于熵权和层次分析法的电力客户风险评估及其规避[J].电力系统保护与控制,2007,35(24):66-70,73.[点击复制] |
| FENG Yi,LI Hong-dong,TIAN Kuo,et al.Risk evaluation and avoidance of electric customers based on entropy weight and AHP[J].Power System Protection and Control,2007,35(24):66-70,73[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 电力市场环境下，电力客户的各种行为将直接或间接地导致企业风险的产生，客户风险问题已经成为电力企业研究的焦点问题。针对国内仅仅开放了发电侧竞争这一电力市场现状，剖析了电力客户在供电企业风险因素中所起到的作用，建立了电力客户的风险指标体系。在此基础上建立了基于熵权的层次分析法的电力客户风险评估模型，并进一步探讨了应用数据挖掘技术进行电力客户风险分析和防范措施。应用企业实际数据测算结果验证了客户风险指标体系及其评估模型的有效性和适用性。 |
| 关键词: 客户风险 风险防范 风险评估 熵权 层次分析法 |
| DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2007.24.016 |
| 投稿时间：2007-05-12 |
| 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（70671041） |
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| Risk evaluation and avoidance of electric customers based on entropy weight and AHP |
| FENG Yi1,LI Hong-dong1,2,TIAN Kuo1,XIONG Hao1,ZHANG Guan-yi1 |
| (1. School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206,China;2.Yingda Securities Company Ltd.,State Grid Company, Shenzhen 518033,China) |
| Abstract: |
| In the current electricity market environment, various actions of power customers will directly or indirectly lead to the emergence of these risks. Electricity enterprises attach great importance to the risk of power customers. In China, only electricity generation side is deregulated and opened now. In this paper, risk environment and risk factors facing by electricity retail enterprises are analyzed, and the role played by power customers in these risk factors is discussed. Power customers risk type and risk indicators are also summarized in this paper. A risk evaluation model of customer risk is established based on the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) which uses the entropy method, and the risk analysis and risk avoidance measure which uses the technology of data mining are discussed. In the end, the validity and applicability of the risk indicators and evaluation model are validated using the practice data of electricity enterprise. |
| Key words: customer risk risk avoidance risk evaluation entropy weight AHP |
