| 引用本文: | 黄 威,胡 博,谢开贵,等.计及老化失效与系统可靠性的电力变压器群体预防性检修/退役计划协同优化方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2024,52(23):135-149.[点击复制] |
| HUANG Wei,HU Bo,XIE Kaigui,et al.A collaborative optimization method for preventive overhaul/retirement planning of power transformer fleets considering aging failure and system reliability[J].Power System Protection and Control,2024,52(23):135-149[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 随着大规模电力变压器运行年限的增长，其老化问题已日益突出。为提升电网对于老化变压器群体资产管理的工作质效，提出一种计及老化失效与系统可靠性的变压器群体预防性检修/退役计划协同优化方法。首先，基于数据-模型混合驱动的变压器退化轨迹分析技术，建立了一种计及检修/退役影响的变压器老化失效模型。通过动态校正模型中老化阈值及预期寿命两个参数，可定量表征不同时间执行检修/退役措施对变压器可靠性的影响。然后，通过积分离散化推导了变压器老化失效不可用率计算公式，并根据全概率公式建立了系统可靠性指标关于待决策变压器不可用率参数的解析模型。以规划期内的预期检修/退役投资成本、故障处置成本以及可靠性损失成本之和最小为优化目标，建立了计及系统可靠性约束的变压器群体检修/退役计划协同优化模型，并采用基于模拟退火(simulated annealing, SA)-粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization, PSO)的混合方法进行迭代求解。最后，在改进的RTS-79系统上进行算例分析，验证了所提方法的有效性。 |
| 关键词: 电力变压器群体 预防性检修/退役计划 老化失效建模 可靠性评估 退化轨迹模拟 |
| DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240164 |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-05修订日期：2024-04-10 |
| 基金项目:国家优秀青年科学基金项目资助(52022016)；中央高校基本科研业务费项目资助(2023CDJYXTD-004) |
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| A collaborative optimization method for preventive overhaul/retirement planning of power transformer fleets considering aging failure and system reliability |
| HUANG Wei1,HU Bo2,XIE Kaigui2,SHAO Changzheng2,TIE Yingqi2,HUANG Bo2 |
| (1. SPIC Chongqing Hechuan Power Generation Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401520, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Power
Transmission Equipment Technology, School of Electrical Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China) |
| Abstract: |
| As the operating years of large-scale power transformers accumulate, their aging-related issues become increasingly prominent. To enhance the work efficiency of power grids in managing aging transformer fleets, this paper proposes a collaborative optimization method for preventive overhaul/retirement planning of transformer fleets considering aging failures and system reliability. Firstly, a novel aging failure model that considers the impact of preventive overhaul/retirement strategies is established based on the data-model hybrid-driven analysis technique of a transformer degradation trajectory. It can quantitatively capture the effects of implementing preventive overhaul/ retirement strategies at different times on transformer reliability by dynamically calibrating the aging threshold and expected lifetime parameters. Next, the unavailability calculation formula for transformer aging failure is derived using the integral discretization method. Then, an analytical calculation model for system reliability indices related to the unavailability parameters of the decision-making transformers is built based on the total probability formula. A reliability- constrained collaborative optimization model for coordinated overhaul/retirement strategies is established aiming to minimize the sum of costs of planned overhaul/retirement investment, fault disposition and reliability loss costs within the planning period. A hybrid approach combining simulated annealing (SA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for iteration analysis. Finally, case studies are conducted on the modified RTS-79 system to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Key words: power transformer fleets preventive overhaul/retirement strategies aging failure modeling reliability evaluation degradation trajectory simulation |
