| 引用本文: | 潘 捷,向明旭,杨知方,等.基于替代效益的水电多维价值解耦建模与量化评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2025,53(8):45-57.[点击复制] |
| PAN Jie,XIANG Mingxu,YANG Zhifang,et al.Decoupling modeling and quantitative evaluation of multidimensional value of hydropower based on substitution benefits[J].Power System Protection and Control,2025,53(8):45-57[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 电力市场发挥资源配置作用的前提是其能够充分发现资源价值。然而，现有价值评估方法难以反映清洁能源对系统产生的真实多维价值，导致其市场收益与自身为系统产生的价值不匹配。对此，以调节式水电为研究对象，提出了基于替代效益的水电多维价值解耦建模与量化评估方法。首先，剖析了水电在环保低碳、灵活调节、保供支撑等方面的价值及其与市场收益的匹配性。然后，构建了基于替代效益的水电多维价值解耦量化评估框架，以水电接入引起的系统相关成本变化情况表征其多维价值，并设计了面向水电价值解耦量化的对比场景。随后，通过时序生产模拟获取不同场景下市场主体的时变运行方式与系统运行成本，实现水电多维价值的定量解耦表征。基于电网实际数据的算例分析表明，水电机组的多维价值与机组运行工况及系统运行状态密切相关，不同工况下水电机组的价值差异显著，而当前市场机制未能有效体现该资源价值差异，对性能良好的水电资源激励不足，相关测算结果为市场机制的完善提供了支撑。 |
| 关键词: 水电 电力市场 价值解耦量化评估 替代效益 |
| DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240880 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-08修订日期：2024-10-12 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目资助(52307082) |
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| Decoupling modeling and quantitative evaluation of multidimensional value of hydropower based on substitution benefits |
| PAN Jie1,XIANG Mingxu1,YANG Zhifang1,WEN Xu2,YU Juan1,ZHOU Quan2 |
| (1. State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology (Chongqing University), Chongqing 400044, China;
2. Southwest Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Chengdu 610041, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The premise for the electricity market to effectively allocate resources is its ability to fully recognize resource value. However, existing valuation methods struggle to reflect the real multidimensional value of clean energy within the power system, resulting in a mismatch between market revenues and the actual value it contributes. To address this issue, this paper focuses on regulated hydropower units and proposes a decoupling modeling and quantitative evaluation method for multidimensional value of hydropower based on substitution benefits. First, the value of hydropower units in low carbon emissions, flexible regulation, and power supply is analyzed, along with its alignment with market revenues. Then, a decoupling and quantitative evaluation framework is proposed based on substitution benefits, representing hydropower units’ multidimensional value through system cost variations resulting from its integration. Comparative scenarios are designed to facilitate decoupling and quantification of hydropower units’ value. Subsequently, a time-series production simulation is conducted to capture market participants’ dynamic operational behavior and system cost changes under different scenarios, enabling the quantitative characterization of hydropower units’ multidimensional value. Case studies based on real power grid data illustrate that the multidimensional value of hydropower units is closely related to their operating conditions and system operation status, with significant variations across different scenarios. However, current market mechanisms fail to effectively reflect these value differences, providing insufficient incentives for high-performing hydropower resources. The relevant analysis results provide support for the improvement of market mechanisms. |
| Key words: hydropower electricity market decoupling and quantitative evaluation substitution benefits |
