| 引用本文: | 魏瑞增,王 磊,何 浣,等.荷载波动与风速概率分布关联的配电线路断线概率计算[J].电力系统保护与控制,2025,53(17):169-177.[点击复制] |
| WEI Ruizeng,WANG Lei,HE Huan,et al.Calculation of distribution line breakage probability based on the correlation between load fluctuations and wind speed probability distribution[J].Power System Protection and Control,2025,53(17):169-177[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 配电线路因设计标准偏低，易受台风侵袭发生倒杆断线等故障。以往基于应力强度干涉(stress-strength interference, SSI)理论的传统可靠性模型研究近似认为线路荷载随机变量与风速服从相同分布，忽略了荷载随机性与风速概率分布间的关联性。为提升模型精度，首先利用SSI理论分析导线和电杆参数对断线概率的影响。再将考虑风速概率分布的断线概率模型与传统可靠性模型进行比较，认为传统可靠性模型无法准确捕捉荷载剖面强迫响应。最后利用荷载-风速二次函数关系式提出考虑风速概率分布的断线概率改进模型。相比只考虑荷载随机性的断线概率模型，考虑风速概率分布的改进模型能更准确地捕捉荷载剖面强迫响应，且计算效率提升至秒级，为快速准确地辅助台风灾害下配电线路损毁预警与应急抢修等提供基础。 |
| 关键词: 台风灾害 配电线路 应力强度干涉理论 断线概率 极值I型分布 |
| DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.241570 |
| 投稿时间：2024-11-25修订日期：2025-03-19 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目资助(U22B20106)；中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目资助(GDKJXM20198441) |
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| Calculation of distribution line breakage probability based on the correlation between load fluctuations and wind speed probability distribution |
| WEI Ruizeng1,WANG Lei1,HE Huan1,ZHANG Zhiwei2,LIU Chao2,HOU Hui2 |
| (1. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Electric Power Equipment Reliability (Electric Power Research Institute of
Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd.), Guangzhou 510080, China; 2. School of Automation,
Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Due to relatively low design standards, distribution lines are vulnerable to typhoons damage, often resulting in pole collapse and line breakage. Traditional reliability models based on the stress-strength interference (SSI) theory typically approximate that the random variable of line load and wind speed follow the same distribution, thereby neglecting the correlation between load randomness and wind speed probability distribution. To improve model accuracy, the SSI theory is used to analyze the impact of line and pole parameters on line-breaking probability. Then the proposed breakage probability model considering wind speed probability distribution is compared with traditional reliability models, showing that conventional approaches fail to accurately capture the forced response of the load profile. Finally, a breakage probability improvement model considering wind speed probability distribution is proposed using a quadratic functional relationship between load and wind speed. Compared with the models that only consider load randomness, the improved model can more accurately capture the forced response of the load profile, while also achieving second-level computational efficiency. This provides a basis for fast and accurate damage warning and emergency repair for distribution lines under typhoon disasters. |
| Key words: typhoon disaster distribution line stress-strength interference theory breakage probability extreme value type I distribution |
