| 引用本文: | 张 璞,张 波,王 建,等.计及主设备时变状态的变电站短时风险评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2021,49(14):73-81.[点击复制] |
| ZHANG Pu, ZHANG Bo, WANG Jian,et al.Short-term risk assessment for a power substation considering the time-varying operation conditions of power equipment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2021,49(14):73-81[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 传统的变电站风险评估以主设备年平均故障率计算主接线可靠性，不能反映设备时变故障风险及其对负荷点供电的影响。将主设备的运行风险考虑为设备自身状态和外部运行气象环境方面因素的影响，以比例风险模型量化设备运行风险。考虑到基于故障树的设备状态评分的分散性较大，不同部件故障对设备故障停运的影响程度不一样，建立了基于层次分析法的设备状态模糊综合评价方法。在此基础上，以电源进线到负荷点之间的连通性为风险量化指标，建立了计及供电连通性的变电站风险评估模型。以IEEE-RTS79系统的变电站为测试对象，对所提方法的效果进行验证。算例表明：主设备在不同场景下的故障率对变电站风险评估结果影响较大，验证了短时风险评估的必要性和所提方法的可行性。 |
| 关键词: 变电站 短时风险评估 比例风险模型 天气条件 状态评价 |
| DOI：DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.201078 |
| 投稿时间：2020-09-02修订日期：2020-09-02 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金委员会-国家电网公司智能电网联合基金(U1866603)；广东电网公司广州供电局科技项目(GZHKJXM080032KK52170010) |
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| Short-term risk assessment for a power substation considering the time-varying operation conditions of power equipment |
| ZHANG Pu1,ZHANG Bo2,WANG Jian2,HUANG Wentao1,CHEN Hongkun1,XIONG Xiaofu2 |
| (1. Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau, Guangdong Power Grid Company, Guangzhou 510620, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of
Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The traditional risk assessment of a power substation calculates the reliability of main electrical wiring based on the annual average failure rate of power equipment, which cannot reflect the time-varying fault risk of equipment and its influence on the power supply at load points. In this paper, the operating risk of the power equipment is considered as being influenced by two factors, namely the state of the equipment and external operating weather environment, and the operating risk of the equipment is quantified by a Proportional Hazards Model (PHM). Considering that the equipment state score based on a fault tree is decentralized and the influence degree of different components’ faults on the equipment outage is different, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the equipment state based on an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is established. On this basis, by taking the connectivity between the power incoming lines and the load points as the risk quantification index, a substation risk assessment model considering power supply connectivity is established. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking the IEEE-RTS79 system substation as the test object. The results show that the failure rate of the main equipment in different scenarios has significant impact on the substation risk assessment result. This demonstrates the necessity of short-term risk assessment and the feasibility of the proposed method.
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-State Grid Joint Fund for Smart Grid (No. U1866603) and the Science and Technology Project of Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau (No. GZHKJXM080032KK 52170010). |
| Key words: power substation short-term risk assessment proportional hazards model weather condition state evaluation |
